After Halloween, the profitable shopping season comes – excuse me, Thanksgiving, but you're just a bump in speed – but there are serious questions about how happy the fourth quarter is for some of the big e-commerce operators.
Online spending will increase by nearly 15 percent from last year, reaching $ 124.1 billion, according to new forecasts from Adobe Analytics. This projection took into account transactions in 80 of the top 100 retailers in the United States, along with consumer visits to retail locations in the United States.
Retail sales, on the other hand, will increase by 4.8 per cent, according to the National Retail Federation. If so, this is slower than the 5.3 per cent growth in the retail market a year ago. "The strong results last year were driven by higher wages, increased employment and increased confidence, and supplemented by the expectation of tax cuts that drove consumers to spend more than expected," said Jack Kleinhans, chief economist at NRF.
This may explain some of the expected slowdown in the fourth quarter for major online retailers – but not all.
Take the Amazon.
The e-commerce giant recently said revenue for the fourth quarter would range from $ 66.5 billion to $ 72.5 billion – well below the $ 73.79 billion estimate. Recent increases in wages for warehouse workers in the Amazon have been taken into account in that guidance, but it remains unclear to what extent these increases have led to a lower fourth-quarter outlook. Analysts also wonder whether the recent increases in shipping play a role in the dwindling outlook for the fourth quarter. For its part, Amazon, mainly through CFO Brian Olsavsky, said it did not see these increases as an important factor in Q4 guidance.
"The Amazon is slowing down, but it's becoming more profitable and has a lot of profitable growth in the future," read one recent analysis of "Find Alpha." However, Amazon should not falter with holiday shipments, as it can distort the company's reputation errors. "The use of robots in the warehouse allows Amazon to charge twice as much as every square foot," said the administration, which says the warehouse infrastructure is in excellent condition for the holidays.
EBay Budget Act
Whatever the reasons for the expected slowdown in the fourth quarter, you can not blame consumer confidence, which recently reached its highest level in 18 years. "With many consumers wanting to do the biggest holiday shopping in November, high consumer confidence is likely to increase spending this season," said a consumer confidence report.
This may not be a great convenience for eBay as the holiday shopping season begins. For the fourth quarter of 2018, eBay said it expected net revenues of $ 2.85 billion to $ 2.89 billion, representing an annual growth of 4 to 5 per cent – hardly anything to write about in an economy seen as strong.
The e-commerce company is trying to attract new consumers without excluding existing customers – a delicate balance of any business, but particularly a challenge for a company like eBay, which is facing fierce competition over the Internet and is still trying to position itself after PayPal's separation. "We are targeting our ambitions to focus more on buying new buyers," said CEO Devin Ving recently. "This will slow growth for a period of time as users grow and get a new mix of customers." In fact, he told analysts that strong growth will not return until 2020.
Apple faces a slowdown as the year draws to a close. Apple's sales forecast for the last quarter of the calendar year – usually the volume of sales of the main unit – from $ 89 billion to $ 93 billion. This means that the company is in danger of losing Wall Street's estimated $ 93 billion to $ 4 billion.
IPhone sales have been settled, causing Citigroup analyst Jim Suva to say, "This means now that iPhone units will start to grow negative throughout the year, because it's easy to talk about great things and not show in the meantime. To promote the growth of wearable product line, as well as their digital payment offerings.
However, the eyes will still be focused on these three big e-commerce operators to see how much their holiday shopping dollars are in the coming months – and that means for the world's largest retail spend.