It is remarkable how fast time has changed. Just a few months ago we were in a booming state that looked like never ending. right Now Reverse yield curve. Markets have been achieved; Google indicators have the word "recession" in the The highest since 2009. There seems to be a near-universal consensus on a major global economic downturn.
when Exactly? Who do you know? Late 2019 or early 2020, says smart money; much sooner, consult pessimists (including a remarkable proportion of executives). What effect does that have on technology, in particular? Ah, now there is a really interesting question.
You can make a good case that technology, as an industry, will actually see a net benefit from any downturn. Notice how technology ignored the big recession in 2008 and continued to prosper, despite a lot of smart money while we warned that the technology industry as we know it was doomed to failure – who can forget the infamous Sequoia Capital "RIP good times" on the surface the ship?
The theory says: Every industry has become a technological industry, and deflation only speeds up the process, because software is eating the world, and stagnation brings a new atmosphere that we do not even have to confront. This is a reasonable. It is uncomfortable, considering the sheer amount of suffering and panic in the economic underpinnings that we benefit so much from. At the macro level, in the long term, it may be true. Each landing is a meteorite that hits the dinosaurs strongly, while we mammals that run the software escape the brunt.
Even if so, what is good for the industry as a whole will be bad for many individual companies. Companies will tighten their belts and pilot initiatives with potential long-term value, but there will be no immediate benefit from the first belts in the chipping block. Consumers will protect their portfolios more carefully, and will be less likely to pay for your app and / or click on your ad. Everyone will reduce or reduce their cash reserves, such as dragons, just in case, which means less money for new or troubled companies.
Above all, we may suffer more mental than money. Once Bruce Stirling, of the debt disasters of 2008, noticed that the interesting thing is that physically, hardly a molecule changed – yet we all agreed that we had all moved from a world full of abundance to a world of despair. Similarly, on paper, any figures for the recession will not be too bad. Heck, even if GDP shrinks by 10% it is impossible to imagine, and this brings us back to the arid lands of the warlords and the mutations we experienced in the past [checks notes] Er, 2013, which did not look like that bitter reality at the time. But we have prepared so much for growth that recession is like disaster.
The lesson is very clear: it is coming, it will bring both misery and opportunity, depending on the combination of its volatility and the extent to which you put it. Do not be overworked Do not be in (lots) of debt. do not be cocky. This may be the worst time to bet on any particular project, or axis. But at the same time, for the better or for the worse, we are in technology, for the moment, high protruding eaters in the food chain. That bright light in the sky, that impending meteor, brings some kind of ugly promise. Let's try to take advantage of it, not just for ourselves?