The market for self-propelled aircraft – also known as eVTOL aircraft, air taxis or personal air vehicles – could reach nearly $ 1.5 trillion by 2040, according to an in-depth analysis by Morgan Stanley Research.
The 85-page financial report, distributed to customers this week, distributes data from a variety of sources, including a private and public seminar on urban mobility held last month in Seattle.
"We see the evolution of UAM [urban air mobility] "The ecosystem is very long-term and requires capital allocation, testing and development in the short term, with increased visibility," said Morgan Stanley research team, which includes senior analysts Adam Jonas.
Among the players, Boeing, which is working with its subsidiary Aurora Flight Sciences, to provide prototype aircraft vehicles next year. Airbus, which is involved in air taxi projects including Vahana in Silicon Valley and Foam in Brazil and Mexico. Just this month, Airbus and Audi presented a mini-version of eVTOL – an electric powered vehicle, vertical jump and landing – at the UAVs exhibition in the Netherlands.
"Lockheed Martin is investing in independent eVTOL aircraft, and we believe Northrop Grumman is likely to participate as well, while Raytheon and Harris are targeting air traffic control," Morgan Stanley said in its report.
There are a wide range of start-ups in eVTOL racing as well. These include Uber, Opener, Kitty Hawk, Joby Aviation, Terrafugia, VerdeGo Aero, PAL-V, China EHang, Volocopter in Germany, Lilium, Swiss's AranMobil in Slovakia, and Japanese Cartivator. Even Aston Martin and Rolls-Royce, two powerful British automotive and space companies, if he ran.
Morgan Stanley said the aircraft could complement the drone operations recorded by companies such as Amazon Wing (Google). "Freight is the second largest cost in the Amazon … and passenger cars can reduce delivery costs in rural areas crowded in rural areas," the report said.
Air travel is expected to account for most market distances in 2040, equivalent to $ 851 billion in the Morgan Stanley case scenario.
"We believe that the market has started as a major addition to the existing transport infrastructure, similar to the way helicopters operate today," analysts said. "It eventually transforms into a cost-effective, time-efficient way for travelers to intermediate distances to short distances, making them the ultimate share of auto companies and airlines."
The cost of transportation will be $ 413 billion from the market, with $ 12 billion coming from military and defense applications. The report gives another $ 198 billion to provide technologies and services, from batteries to independent control programs.
Morgan Stanley warned that the rise in the car market should be supported by appropriate technology trends as well as the regulatory environment. Key challenges will include improved energy storage capacity in next-generation batteries, noise reduction and artificial intelligence to meet stringent safety standards for independent flights.
"Full functional self-flying may need to be improved to a much larger level than traditional EVs / AVs [electric vehicles / autonomous vehicles] To move on roads over the next ten years, "the report said.
Morgan Stanley has placed a list of companies called "Flying Car 50" to highlight market opportunities ranging from aviation and defense (for example, Boeing, Airbus and major airlines) to technical devices (Apple and Garmin) and insurance (progressive).
Amazon and Microsoft are also on the list … Of course. "We believe that MSFT is the best in cloud services for air traffic management and data management," analysts wrote.